Good morning #30june
Since post n. 80 I've been waiting for the outcomes
of the Tamarrod initiative to oust President Morsi.
The enthusiasm that embraced the movement was tangible in the streets of Cairo
and the 15 million signatures target has surely been reached.
But Egypt hasn't been witnessing just the euphoric participation to this initiative :
the islamic wing it's collecting its signatures as well
to keep the elected Muslim Brotherhood government in place
(they called themselves Tagarrod movement).
Mounting public discontent will find its answers today,
in'shalla.
Here I will sketch what the possible scenarios might be,
wishing that this day will not turn into some bloody mess like Mohammed Mahmoud' week, 2011.
First : not much happens in terms of popular upheaval and the pressure remains political. This might lead both to a stronger opposition resulting in some settlement with the MB or in a more authoritarian grip on power by the ruling party.
Second : the Tamarrod, with some support by the army wins and Morsi steps back. The transition should therefore be handled by the MB head of the Shura Council until a new government is elected, an option that the opposition has already declared unacceptable. They would probably ask the head of the constitutional court as interim figurehead president while a new government steps into power. This scenario would lead to a harsh confrontation with the Islamist wing for several reason, including their view of the Court as an enemy.
Third : if the army is forced to intervene despite its announced refusal, they will have roughly three options to choose from : to restore the calm while Morsi will remain in power and find some national agreement ; to take over power to guide a quick transition trying to avoid an unpopular military Council ; to fully take over power for an extended period depending on the level of violence reached in the country.
And now, let's see how it goes.
And to all my friends who are there :
please take care.
